2010 Super Derby Day Analysis – Sept 25

Louisiana Downs full card analysis (Super Derby Day) – Saturday (9-25-10)

By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com)

Weather: Isolated thunderstorms (30% chance). High 92.

Best Bets (races 3, 9, 12)

Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2011 contenders, and be sure to follow Horse Racing Nation on Facebook!

Louisiana Downs Track Announcer Travis Stone has written a blog on Super Derby contender Golden Moka. You can read it here.

LAD 1 (Mcl-12.5k, 3,4,5yo, 6f) #5 ZARROZZI (12-1) is out of a 17% debut Maiden Claiming outfit and his local 3f drill on Sept 11 looks solid. #2 Limerock (7-5) earned decent numbers in local straight Maiden bow and anything resembling that effort puts him squarely in the mix throughout. The top two finishers from that heat both came back to score and he has the 36% Eramia/Nicks team in his corner. Sharp trainer Michelle Lovell is 22% with firsters and she has #1 Jim N Pegs Gal (12-1) ready to go in this spot. Dam has tossed three winners. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta 2/1-5, Exacta 1-5/2

LAD 2 (Louisiana Stallion, 2yo fil, 7f) #3 FULL RIGGED (8-5) chased above par fractions in a similar local spot July 31. I like her running style versatility and the Steve Asmussen trainee is fresh and ready to roll today. THE PLAYS: Trifecta 3/4-5-6-7

LAD 3 (OC-17.5/1x, 3up, 8.5T) #3 GOWDEN MILE (6-1) brings strong Evangeline form to the table for the 25% Melancon/Bourgeois tandem. The sharp gelding earned much better Final Time Ratings in his last three and should be within striking range at a hint of a price. #7 Kitty Kats Tale (3-1) owns an ascending Final Time Rating pattern and the lightly raced gelding should sit a decent tactical trip for quality connections. #12 Monarchos Bay (12-1) freaked in an off the turf extended sprint to earn his diploma Aug 19. He handles turf and reunites with PVal. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/7-12, Exacta 7-12/3

LAD 4 (OC-20/2x, LA-bred f&m 3up, 6.5f) #3 ILLUSION OF SPEED (2-1) exceeded winning par for this in latest local six furlong tally and the show finisher came back to score. She hails from a high percentage barn and should hold form 3^rd off the shelf. #5 Good Human Bean (4-5) owns the best overall Pace/Final Time Ratings and is an obvious early-pressing threat for Al Stall Jr. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3-5

LAD 5 (Louisiana Stallion, 2yo, 7f) #7 LORANGER NATIVE (9-2) was a sharp stalk and pounce winner of his local bow and that effort was validated when the clear place finisher came back to score. Bob Young is 21% with his recent grads trying winners for the first time and a tactical trip at a hint of a price is expected. #6 Ollie Baby (5-2) was much the best as the heavy favorite in his local bow for quality connections. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta Box 6-7

LAD 6 (MSW, 2yo, 6f) #6 SIR STAR (7-2) is out of 18% win early sire Five Star Day and dam has tossed four winners. Calhoun is 21% with firsters. #10 Le Prince (4-1) sports a string of solid local drills for a profitable win early barn. #5 Codes Diamond (8-1) earned strong Pace Ratings in local bow. #1 Simba’s Voodoo (5-2) is firing bullets for this but sharp trainer Sam Ishaq is 0-for-19 with firsters. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Exacta 6/1-5-10, Exacta 1-5-10/6

LAD 7 (Unbridled Hcp, 3up, 8.5T) #4 MILE MARKER (4-1) has captured 2 of 3 local starts at the current meet and might get brave if able to sneak away early. He chased a fast pace and finished behind today’s rival #3 Mogumbo Cat (7-5) in local Stakes event Aug 28. The latter has a nose for the wire and today’s pilot PVal booted him home in a local turf Stakes route last year. THE PLAYS: #4 to win, Superfecta 3-4/3-4-5/3-4-5-7/ALL, Superfecta 4/3-5-7/3-5-7-8-9/ALL

LAD 8 (Temperence Hill, 3up, 6f) #3 PANTARA PHANTOM (4-1) has never been better and needs to bring his A game if he wants to compete with #2 Foreign Production (7-5). My top owns fine tactical speed and went over the century mark in latest course-distance Optional Claiming tally. Foreign Production has won all three starts this year and does some of his best work at Louisiana Downs. The deserving favorite runs well fresh and must be caught. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 2-3

LAD 9 (Happy Ticket, 2yo fil, 8.5T) $100,000 Keeneland sales grad #7 ACCEPT (5-1) won her flat mile turf bow at Ellis Park for sharp trainer Mike Maker. Top SoCal rider Joel Rosario hops aboard and a tactical trip seems likely. #8 Lawyer Tiffany (3-1) earned an above par Final Time Rating in local dirt sprint bow. She owns a decent grass pedigree (Pure Prize-More Than Ready) and worked a solid five furlongs over the local weeds Sept 19. Nothing wrong with PVal hopping aboard. #2 Patty’s Pride (7-2) has fired in all three turf starts and her numbers are going in the right direction. THE PLAYS: #7 to win, Exacta 7/2-8, Exacta 2-8/7

LAD 10 (Sunday Silence, 2yo, 8.5T) #8 EL GRAYLING (6-1) is slowly improving and earned a nice Late Pace Rating from post 11 in flat mile turf Maiden win on Sept 5. The $140,000 Keeneland sales grad sports a bullet for this and it’s Rosario/Maker again. #5 Aces N Kings (4-5) has won all five of his career starts including a course/distance Stakes romp Aug 28. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta Box 5-8

LAD 11 (Grade 2 Super Derby, 3yo, 9f) #6 DISTORTED ECONOMY (5-2) has shown marked improvement since adding blinkers at Del Mar in July. His new pilot Patrick Valenzuela has plenty of experience over the local oval and the Neil Drysdale trainee exits a strong effort in the El Cajon Stakes. He tries dirt for the first time and should be within striking range throughout. #4 Hurricane Ike (9-5) might get brave if able to sneak away early under Joel Rosario. The Graded dirt winner has done all of his damage in sprints but today’s expected tepid pace could allow him to get the trip. #5 Golden Moka (3-1) is 4-for-4 lifetime and could apply pressure to Hurricane Ike. He came off a long layoff to upset the Prince of Wales at Fort Erie and could easily be this good for sharp conditioner Brian Lynch. #3 Apart (3-1) is the typically overmatched Prelude winner but that may not be the case this year. Al Stall Jr. has had success in this event with ’08 winner My Pal Charlie and ’09 runner-up Blame. The son of Flatter is lightly raced and should continue to develop. THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Exacta Box 4-6

LAD 12 (River Cities, f&m 3up, 8.5T) #8 VICKIES IN TOWN (3-1) has captured her last three local turf starts and has earned quality numbers as well. Simington sticks with the talented LA-bred. #7 Category Seven (7-5) has won five straight turf starts and has compiled an impressive record the past two years. #3 Dancin Perfect (4-1) likes the local weeds and was only a ½ length behind Category Seven in July. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta 8/3-7, Exacta 3-7/8

LAD 13 (MSW, LA-bred 3,4,5yo, 6f) #8 TUFF TIZ (5-1) took some action in local bow but he broke out and raced wide from the outside post that day. He dons the hood, hails from a sharp barn, and deserves another chance. #6 Strike It (3-1) finished a disappointing 4^th as the favorite in a local turf route Sept 3. He earned a quality Final Time Rating in a dirt sprint runner-up before that and the show finisher came back to score. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Superfecta 6-8/6-7-8/1-6-7-8/ALL, Superfecta 8/1-6-7/1-3-6-7-12/ALL

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders (in order of preference)

Race

(1)   5-2-1

(2)   3

(3)   3-7-12

(4)   3-5

(5)   7-6

(6)   6-10-5-1

(7)   4-3

(8)   3-2

(9)   7-8-2

(10) 8-5

(11) 6-4-5-3

(12) 8-7-3

(13) 8-6