Sep/103
2011 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – Sept 22
I am getting an early start in my first in a series of blogs devoted to 2011 Kentucky Derby hopefuls. There will be many twists and turns in the coming weeks and months, and the majority of horses on this initial list will almost certainly fall by the wayside.
For my 2010 Derby list, I posted my Top 10 contenders along with five honorable mentions. I will mix it up a bit this time around. In addition to my normal Top 10 I will include the top five fillies.
My list below is based on a combination of promise shown and distance breeding. Boys At Tosconova and J P’s Gusto are the early bloomers but neither has a strong route pedigree. They will both be part of my list but will not occupy the top three spots.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2011 contenders, the upcoming Secretariat Movie, and be sure to follow Horse Racing Nation on Facebook!
Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Males:
1. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) – G1 Hopeful runner-up owns a promising route pedigree. The Pletcher trainee reminds me of my ’09 BC Juvenile pick Eskendereya.
2. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) – Earned a 102 BSF in romping maiden win on Travers undercard. Goes next in the G1 Champagne on Oct 9.
Irish invader Pathfork is expected to contest the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
3. Pathfork (Distorted Humor) – Three overseas wins including G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh. Bred well enough for dirt and goes next in BC Juvenile on Nov 6.
4. Boys At Tosconova (Officer) – Easily captured Hopeful at the Spa. How far does the son of Officer want to run? BC Juvenile could be next on his dance card.
5. J P’s Gusto (Successful Appeal) – Best of the West has already captured four Stakes races. His pedigree screams sprint and he gets his first route test in the G1 Norfolk Oct 2.
6. Jaycito (Victory Gallop) – Clearly second best in Del Mar Futurity. Talented maiden is trained by Mike Mitchell and could show up in the Norfolk.
7. Acaffella (Mr. Greeley) – Big two turn win at Golden Gate on Sept 11. The Richard Mandella runner steps up to face tougher in the Norfolk.
8. Astrology (A.P. Indy) – Steve Asmussen’s colt is bred all over to route. He graduated at Saratoga on Sept 4.
9. Sway Away (Afleet Alex) – G2 Best Pal runner-up should improve as distances increase.
10. Admiral Perry (First Samurai) – Clearly second best behind Uncle Mo in Saratoga debut. Shug McGaughey is a patient conditioner and will take his time with this promising sort.
Darley Debutante winner Tell A Kelly goes next in the Oak Leaf Stakes - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Top Five Fillies:
1. Tell a Kelly (Tapit) – Sharp win in G1 Darley Debutante. The Oct 3 Oak Leaf is the next target for John Sadler’s filly.
2. Jordy Y (Congrats) – Arlington-Washington Lassie runner-up goes next in the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland on Oct 8. She hails from the high percentage Wayne Catalano barn.
3. Winter Memories (El Prado) – Big late kick to graduate in turf route bow at Saratoga on Sept 3. The James Toner runner could be a turf star in the making.
4. New Normal (Forestry) – G3 Natalma winner ran much faster than Summer Stakes males at Woodbine on Sept 18. Look for her to contest the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf.
5. Yawkey Way (Grand Slam) – Won a pair of NY-bred sprint starts at Saratoga this summer. She owns a decent pedigree and has fine trainer Chad Brown in her corner.
11:59 pm on September 22nd, 2010
One thing we know about the derby, being good in the mud helps. What about Vengeful Wildcat? I like Acaffella (1 1/16 win) and Sway Away, both seem to hace the stamina to go the 1 1/4.
8:14 pm on September 23rd, 2010
I followed Monmouth Park closely and was impressed with Vengeful Wildcat. I believe he will be best sprinting and that is why he was left off the list. He could always prove me wrong and if he does I will add him at a later date.
11:55 pm on September 25th, 2010
Vengeful Wildcat’s sire Vindication was the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and Vindication’s sire was triple crown winner Seattle Slew. Although the dam side of the pedigree with Wild Snitch, from Forest Wildcat, is suggestive of sprinting, the Vindication side of the pedigree has the necessary elements for success in races of more challenging distances. If he competes in The Champagne at Belmont, it should give us an early indication of Vengeful Wildcat’s potential.