2011 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – The Speed Factor
- Updated: March 21, 2011
There was a single graded Derby prep last week and it was a doozy. The Factor seized control of the Rebel Stakes (103 BSF) from the outset and ran his rivals off their feet in a dazzling display of speed.
The Baffert trainee was exiting a nice win in the San Vicente and was flattered when Premier Pegasus came back to romp in the San Felipe. The speedy son of War Front probably does not want to run ten furlongs but he changes the pace complexion of any race he enters.
Sway Away went from one speed favoring oval to another, found some early trouble, reportedly lost a tooth, and never seemed comfortable in a surprising Rebel dud. He does have talent but it is getting late in the game for a setback and he desperately needs graded earnings. He gets a mulligan and remains on my list.
J P’s Gusto sat a decent tracking trip but was run into the ground by The Factor. He clearly has distance limitations and his top ten run has come to an end. He’s a decent sort and reminds me a bit of Comma To The Top. Not quite Derby material but can make a decent living if properly spotted. The Arkansas Derby is a possibility.
Caleb’s Posse and Archarcharch ran 2-3 in the Rebel but both solid horses are a cut or two below the best.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2011 contenders on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders:
1. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) – Undefeated juvenile champ has a hammerlock on the top spot. His Wood Memorial prep in the Timely Writer went smooth as silk and look for him to be sitting on ready in New York. Graded Earnings – $1,260,000
2. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) – Uncle Mo’s stablemate smartly captured his Gotham return and probably goes next in the April 3 Florida Derby. Breezed 4f in :50.40 (40/55) at Palm Meadows on March 20. Graded Earnings – $260,000
3. Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) – Solid place finish in Risen Star return. Mike Smith knows him now and he should spring forward in the April 16 Blue Grass. Three works since his last including an easy 4f move in :50.90 (39/49) at Palm Meadows on 3-19. Graded Earnings – $240,254
4. Dialed In (Mineshaft) – Impressive Holy Bull winner lost his Florida Derby allowance prep on March 6. The Nick Zito charge needed that prep and should be as tight as a drum on April 3. Scheduled to work later this week. Graded Earnings – $240,000
5. To Honor And Serve (Bernardini) – The Nashua/Remsen hero finisher was obviously short in his Fountain of Youth return. Three moves since the FOY including a 5f (1:01.20) Payson bullet on 3-13 and another solid 5f (1:02.40) move on 3-21. Florida Derby is next. Graded Earnings – $250,000
6. Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) – Big win in the San Felipe and the San Vicente is looking even better following The Factor’s Rebel romp. He’ll probably have his final Derby prep in the April 9 Santa Anita Derby. Graded Earnings – $228,000
7. Elite Alex (Afleet Alex) – Southwest show finisher wisely skipped the Rebel in favor of the March 26 Louisiana Derby. Tim Richey/Calvin Borel are high on him and he worked 5f in 1:00.80 (5/32) at Oaklawn Park on March 20. Graded Earnings – $25,000
8. The Factor (War Front) – San Vicente hero dominated the Rebel Stakes in his first route try. The speed demon might return to Oaklawn Park for the April 16 Arkansas Derby. Graded Earnings – $270,000
9. Sway Away (Afleet Alex) – San Vicente runner-up had everything go wrong in the Rebel. He needs to regroup in a hurry and is reportedly staying at Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby. Graded Earnings – $61,500
10. Jaycito (Victory Gallop) – He finished a distant 2nd in a less than stellar San Felipe return. He will need to run much better in the Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby. Graded Earnings – $250,000