Saturday’s pick six from Churchill Downs includes a carryover of more than $57,000 (races 6-11). Five Graded races are part of the sequence including the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap for 3-year-olds and up traveling nine furlongs on the main track. Rachel Alexandra tries to get back on the beam in the opening leg of the pick six. There is a 60% chance of scattered thunderstorms with a high temperature of 88.
Degree of Difficulty: Moderate. On a scale of 1 to 10, the Saturday pick six from Churchill Downs rates a 6.
Possible Singles: Rachel Alexandra (6th race), Colizeo (8th race)
Jarrod Horak’s Churchill Downs Pick 6 analysis – Saturday, June 12, 2010
Churchill Downs Race 6 (Grade 2 Fleur de Lis, f&m 3up, 9f) #4 Rachel Alexandra (2-5) has captured all four of her starts at this distance and has no excuses in her 3rd start of 2010. #5 Jessica Is Back (4-1) has earned triple digit Final Time Ratings in six of her last ten starts and looms a pace factor at the very least under Gomez. She loves wet footing. #2 Made For Magic (10-1) handles any footing and has never been better. Avila is enjoying a banner year and she projects the right tracking trip.
Churchill Downs Race 7 (Grade 3 Jefferson Cup, 3yo, 8.5T) #3 Asphalt (3-1) owns running style versatility in a race without much early zip. He closed from far back last time but expect him to run a race similar to his Feb 7 effort at the Gulf. #7 Lost Aptitude (5-2) exits a pair of Graded clunkers but he gets a favorable race shape and might not look back under Gomez.
Churchill Downs Race 8 (Grade 3 Northern Dancer, 3yo, 8.5f) #4 Colizeo (5-2) finally ran back to his impressive Florida Maiden win with a course/distance Allowance wire job May 9. He figures to be tough to catch unless #1 Worldly (6-1) guns from the rail. #6 Prince Will I Am (4-1) was clearly second best behind Colizeo last time and the late-runner needs more pace help. Borel sticks and he has fired in both local outings.
Churchill Downs Race 9 (Grade 3 Regret, 3yo fil, 9T) I attended the live races at Pimlico May 14 and was visually impressed with #4 Joharmony (6-1) in the $50,000 Hilltop Stakes. She cruised to her 3rd straight turf win that day and projects another nice tactical trip at a hint of a price. Her connections are easy to like and her numbers are going the right way. #5 Queen of the Creek (7-2) owns an ascending Final Time Rating pattern and is bred to run all day. A tactical trip seems likely. #8 It’s Tea Time (9-2) is back on preferred turf footing and will be finishing under Gomez. Rusty Arnold is struggling to find the winners’ circle here. Horse Racing Nation Play of the Day.
Churchill Downs Race 10 (Grade 1 Stephen Foster, 3up, 9f) #4 Duke of Mischief (6-1) looms the value play for a profitable Florida outfit. He earned strong Final Time Ratings in both wins this year and exits a razor sharp stalk and pounce tally in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap. He runs well fresh and sports six solid Calder drills for this. There is not much pace for a race of this quality and #2 Battle Plan (5-2) is a serious prominent throughout threat for Castellano/Pletcher. The Overbrook blueblood (Empire Maker-Flanders) has rattled off four straight including his last pair at this distance. The fresh Graded winner proved he was more that a Gulfstream specialist with a sharp tally when last seen at Fair Grounds March 27. #11 Blame (3-1) won the G2 Clark at this course/distance to cap his ’09 campaign, and he returned with a sharp win on the Preakness undercard. He sports a bullet for this and almost has to move forward but a tough draw in a paceless event could relegate him to a minor placing. Horse Racing Nation Play of the Day.
Churchill Downs Race 11 (MSW, f&m 3up, 8T) #1 Talkin And Singing (15-1) is now under the care of Catalano and dam has tossed five turf winners. Tab for improvement. #3 Mega Dream (8-1) caught a decent field in her dirt route bow as the favorite at Fair Grounds. Dam has tossed a grass winner. #8 Carriage Trade (3-1) is a $1.5 million purchase out of Storm Cat and dam has tossed three turf winners. Albarado/Romans are 3-for-3 together recently and the promising debut runner is firing bullets for this.
Pick 6 Spread Ticket Calculator courtesy of Del Mar website (click tickets to enlarge)