$86,200 Santa Anita Pick 6 Carryover Tickets – Oct 8
- Updated: October 7, 2012
Sunday’s Santa Anita Park Recap – Oct 7
Edge to early-pressing types (2 wire jobs @ 6f) on the fast main track. Tactical types nabbed both downhill sprints and patient runners captured both turf routes carded.
Richard Mandella saddled two winners on the day including Rumor in the L.A. Woman Stakes.
On the ticket front I tabbed one Primary (Moulin De Mougin) winner and one Secondary (Let’s Do It) winner. Carryover into Monday.
Play Monday's Santa Anita Park games at DerbyWars.com
Monday’s Pick 6 ($86,200 carryover)
Degree of Difficulty: Competitive (7/10)
Possible Singles: Upbeat Mood (9th race), Mine Your Biznes (10th race)
Best Bet: Seven Bridges (6th race)
Live Longshot: Quizzical (8th race)
Jarrod Horak’s Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Tickets – Monday, October 8, 2012
Race 5 – Clm-25k, 8T
Primary – #9 Briteyednbushytail, #5 Dazzletown
Secondary – #8 Smil’n from Above, #4 Pumpkin Pie
Race 6 – MSW, 8.5f
Primary – #5 Seven Bridges, #10 Candy’s Jewel
Secondary – #8 Dylan Donnelly, #13 Tiznow Or Then
Today’s Santa Anita Park play at HorseRacingNation.com
Race 7 – Clm-25k, 8T
Primary – #2 Ambitioness, #9 Elegant
Secondary – #4 Malusita, #7 Collating Lady
Race 8 – OC-25/2L, 6f
Primary – #9 Twelve Folds, #10 Quizzical, #2 First Class Flyer
Secondary – #4 Attack the Jack, #7 Trapper’s Bounty, #3 Lookin for Jonesy
Race 9 – Surfer Girl, 8T
Primary - #3 Upbeat Mood
Secondary – #5 Bares Tripper, #4 Wishing Gate
Race 10 – Mcl-30k, 5.5f
Primary – #10 Mind Your Biznes
Secondary – #8 Target Engaged
Monday Pick 6 Tickets
Note that the Standard Ticket shows how much it would cost if you used all of the contenders on one ticket. The multiple Primary/Secondary ticket strategy saves money and allows you to put your strong handicapping opinions to the test.
Robert N.
October 8, 2012 at 12:32 am
Hello Jarrod,
These comments pertain to your selections on Saturday, Oct. 6. I was impressed to see that your standard ticket ($2,500) included all six winners and if played would have earned a return of more than $150 k. (All these figures are from memory so correct me if I am wrong.). I also couldn’t help but notice that your “spread” tickets earned a total of $0. Okay, I understand why you (or anyone) would hesitate to plunk down thousands of dollars on a single pick 6 ticket. But your spread ticket method does not seem to me, to be a good way of reducing the ticket cost. There are two reasons for saying this: (1) your spread method would only be effective if the number of primary winnerswas routinely much larger than the number of secondary winners. In fact, your secondary selections appear almost as likely to win as your Primaries. if more than one secondary selection wins, your spread tickets become worthless. If six primaries, or five primaries and one secondary win, then you would nab the six pick but the you would never nab the big jackpot (like October 6). To win that you would need more secondary selections, which is impossible using the spread ticket method that you present in your blog. Your only hope of winning the big jackpot would be to base your six separate tickets on some kind of anticipated track bias: for instance, on October 6, I couldn’t help but notice that if you had eliminated all the extreme outside post positions from your selections, you could have reduced the cost of your standard ticket from $2,500 to only about $200 dollars, and that ticket would have included all six winners. I realize that it is always easy to come up with these insights after all the races on a card have been run, but I still say that there is merit in this idea. The spread tickets should-in my opinion-be based some some anticipated bias: inside vs. outside and/or front runners vs. closers. I should add that I am very far from being an expert handicapper. All the comments I made above are based on following your blog for several months. So this is just a suggestion for you to consider.
Keep up the good work.
Admin
October 8, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Thanks for you input, Robert N. I have been posting daily pick six selections on this site since ’09 and have given out numerous 6 out of 6 combos and many consos using the Primary/Secondary strategy. This site showed a profit for the year in 2009 and 2011. I have to catch up on profit/loss stats this year and will do that in the near future.
My Primary selections have done quite well over the long run and using the cost effective strategy has proven to be successful, not just in the pick six but in the pick 4 as well.
Many fans have emailed me and said they use this site for late pick four selections and have done quite well.
Thanks for visiting P6 blog and I hope to give out many more winners in the future ~ jarrod
Robert N.
October 8, 2012 at 7:50 pm
yes, you seem to be doing pretty well without my advice. (Note today’s card [races 6-8). Keep up the good work and best wishes on all your future wagers.
Admin
October 9, 2012 at 1:34 am
I appreciate your comments, Robert N. Keep ‘em coming. Someone asked if I would mind adding my best bet and live longshot to the blog and that has proven popular. Another blog reader asked me to post my Primary/Secondary selections in order of preference instead of just post position order and I did that as well.
I have also had other fans ask if I have tried other strategies such as the one Steven Crist uses on DRF. I have briefly dabbled with that one and might try some different things and mix things up in the future.
Kevin O
October 9, 2012 at 11:45 am
I’ve said it before and I say it again. I wish more people would actually contribute to discussions on this site. I was interested to read Robert’s comments because I don’t use the spread method either. However, I understand the reason why Jarrod uses it and like Robert, I don’t want to be too critical.
Whenever I choose to play the pick6, I always visit this site just to see what Jarrod has to say and I appreciate his contributions. My only suggestions would be to get away from using so many favorites. I have looked at his picks for years. Many times, if he picks 4 or 5 horses (primary and or secondary), those 4 or 5 horses are the most favored in that race. We should all know very well that program favorites rarely win a majority of the races and this rule is even more profound in the pick6 sequences at major tracks. (I don’t have the data to back this up but read about it some time ago.)
I have been playing the horses for 20 years but I have been playing pick6 tickets for only about 6 years and have won only 5 times. (Highest amount being about 90k and the lowest was 450 bucks.) It is a special wager and most, if not all of my horse playing friends don’t “get it”. I love it.
I appreciate Jarrod taking the time to put himself “out there” almost every day with his picks. That takes guts.
I would like to see this site morph into something more interactive. Suggestion: Next time we have a large carryover, get your bloggers to each pick one race in the sequence and really analyze it from top to bottom and come up with a suggested winner etc. Most importantly, get opinions on WHY you think that runner will win. What’s the race setup? Why do you think the winner will be a closer? Why do you think the winner will be the fastest sprinter? I know there are many data elements to consider but my opinion is, one or two will help you make a decision. I don’t spend a lot of money on my tickets because I say either you have an opinion about which runner will win or you don’t. (2 year old races and low-level claimers being a place to go deep for a couple reasons, but I digress.)
Anyway, I love this subject and have my fair share of thoughts, valid or not.
And look forward to more discussion.
Admin
October 10, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Thanks, Kevin O.
Since the Pick 6 is a blind wager, and the purpose is to pick all of the winners in a six race sequence, price (value) is not the most important factor. I pick many horses in the mid-price range, favorites, and a few longshots as well. I try to pick non-favorites as my top Primary plays as often as possible. I also try to beat vulnerable favorites, but as I stated earlier, the idea is to pick winners and spend less money using a smart wagering strategy.
The Primary/Secondary strategy is only one way to play. There are many ways to play the pick six and I would advise fans to use a method that works for them.
I used to post daily analysis of all of my contenders but my busy schedule with HRN and Derby Wars has forced me to streamline my work on this blog.
I enjoy the interaction with fans and hope to add occasional written and/or video analysis in the future during less busy times and especially when they have large carryovers.