2010 Colonial Turf Cup Day Analysis

I provided on-site coverage of the 2010 Preakness Stakes week festivities for Horse Racing Nation, and my next live assignment is 2010 Colonial Turf Cup day at Colonial Downs on Saturday, June 18.

As part of my coverage I decided to provide free full card analysis for Colonial Downs, along with a video preview of the three Stakes races carded.

I will return Saturday night with a Colonial Turf Cup day recap blog complete with pics and another video.

Colonial Downs full card analysis – Saturday (6-19-10)

By Jarrod Horak (horseracingnation.com)

Weather: Mostly Sunny. High 91.

Best Bets (races 5, 7, 10)

CNL Analysis – June 19

CNL 1 (Clm-5/2L, 3up, 5.5f inner turf) #8 DUEL IN THE SUN (10-1) turns back after a troubled (rank early, checked) journey in a fast early/slow late local flat mile affair May 30.  Hamilton Smith is 28% with second grass starters and barn $$ rider Franklin strings along. #3 McNamara (9-5) finished 3^rd in the faster NW2L flat mile turf claimer May 30. He dons the hood for the 50% (6-for-12) Karamanos/Pino team and should make presence felt throughout at low odds. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta Box 3-8

CNL 2 (MSW, 3up, 5.5f inner turf) #1 IMPASSIONED (2-1) is out of a 31% debut turf outfit and Homeister is a sharp 20% grass rider. Dam has tossed four winners from as many starters and the rail post (42%) is deadly at this distance. #7 Studley (5-2) invades from Belmont and sports the best overall Pace Ratings. He’s probably the target under profitable turf jock Russell. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1-7

CNL 3 (Alw-1x, f&m 3up, 5.5f inner turf) #3 RUBY PEAK (4-1) was hardly a secret in her sharp debut and she came back to disappoint in first start vs. winners. The fresh miss is out of a profitable 27% first grass barn (Jenkins) and dam has tossed three turf winners. #2 Taking A Chance (5-2) breaks from the advantageous rail and finished a close-up 2^nd in a local $50,000 turf Stakes sprint last summer. She makes her first start in more than six months and projects a ground saving tactical journey. #4 Limehouse Liz (5-2) earned above par Final Time Rating in dirt sprint bow at Pimlico. She projects a decent tactical trip and figures right there if able to handle grass. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/2-4, Exacta 2-4/3

CNL 4 (Alw-1x, 3up, 5.5T) Let’s go right back to the 29% Camacho/Jenkins team and tab #1 EARLY STAR (6-1). The gelded son of Successful Appeal fired in both local dirt starts last year and switches surfaces for a sharp 2^nd off the shelf outfit. He is working well for this and should move forward if able to handle the footing. #2 Redwood Fever (4-1) cuts back in distance for sharp New York connections and the winner from his last came back to score again. #9 Ennis (5-1) nabbed both of his 2010 starts including a Pimlico turf sprint May 22. His connections are easy to like and note that the place/show finishers from his last both came back to tally. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta 1/2-9, Exacta 2-9/1

CNL 5 (MSW, f&m 3up, 5.5f inner turf) #8 TOTOLOCHEE (6-1) hails from the recently hot Camacho/Ferris Allen team and showed marked improvement when switched to the sod at Pimlico May 22. #1 The Other Woman (10-1) is in from Hollywood Park and Garcia/O’Neill are 1-for-1 together at the current stand. The $82,000 Keeneland sales grad turns back after a pair of disappointing route tries. #2 Fugitive Angel (9-5) cuts back in distance and makes her first start in more than six months. Her rider is 24% on the sod and she removes the hood in hopes of relaxing early. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-2, Exacta 1-2/8

CNL 6 (OC-32/2x, 3up, 10T) #1 IMPONENTE PURSE (4-1) flashed turf ability in Brazil last year. He adds blinkers/lasix for his profitable new barn and sports a couple of bullet works for his US bow. The promising import can compete here if ready to roll off the shelf. #6 Day Flight (15-1) tries turf for Camacho/Jenkins and might sneak away early in a race that came up light on pace. Dam has tossed a turf winner. #5 Complete Zen (8-1) exits a sharp course/distance tally and should sit another nice tactical trip for solid connections. THE PLAYS: #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-5-6

CNL 7 (Hcp-25k, 3up, 9.5T) #2 ROCKIN’ JOE (9-2) hails from the hot Mike Pino barn and Camacho is 3-for-5 with this outfit recently. I was fond of this one at Fair Grounds this winter and today’s distance seems perfect. He landed the place in both local turf outings. #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi (3-1) finished 2^nd in a needed local effort May 29 and the show finisher came back to score. She won a similar course/distance event last June and her trainer is 30% 2^nd off the shelf. #4 Kurbat (7-5) has been earning decent Final Time Ratings on the main and has won on the turf before. I find it interesting that the 6-year-old gelding has not raced on the turf since arriving in this country early last year. The low odds contender might be better on dirt at this point in his career. THE PLAYS: #2 to win, Exacta Box 2-9, Trifecta 2-9/2-4-9/ALL

CNL 8 (Buckland S., f&m 3up, 5.5T) #10 SUZZONA (4-1) ran into the red hot Starfish Bay at Pimlico May 14 and she was the beaten favorite behind a wire job winner here last time. The consistent mare projects a tactical journey under Vega. #3 Libor Lady (5-2) sports the best overall Pace Ratings and the seven-time turf sprint winner looms a serious prominent throughout threat. #5 Tripped (20-1) easily captured all three of her local turf sprint starts including NW3L claiming win June 2. Her connections are easy to like and she should have every chance to succeed from a tactical position. She obviously faces tougher and needs to step up her game but the price figures to be right. THE PLAYS: #10 to win, Exacta 10/2-5, Trifecta 3-10/ALL/5

CNL 9 (Grade 3 All Along, f&m 3up, 9T) #3 BLIND DATE (8-1) won the G3 Virginia Oaks at this course/distance last summer. She showed late interest in needed dirt sprint return at Pimlico April 3 and raced wide throughout from outside post in G3 Gallorette on the Preakness undercard. She makes her 3^rd start of the year and could be ready to return to her sharp ’09 form. Her connections are easy to like and she figures to offer value. #4 Tizaqueena (2-1) is a multiple Stakes winner exiting a tempo controlling wire job tally in a Graded Polytrack affair. The versatile early-pressing type has a nose for the wire. #5 Shared Account (3-1) was beaten a head by Blind Date here last year and finished a close-up 4^th in needed Gallorette return. She owns fine tactical speed and always fires on the turf. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta 3/4-5, Exacta 4-5/3

CNL 10 (Grade 2 Colonial Turf Cup, 3yo, 9.5T) #3 KINDERGARDEN KID (5-1) exits a slow early/fast late Optional claiming event at Belmont and he flew home in that good looking tally. The well-bred $500,000 Keeneland sales grad sports a bullet for this and appears to be sitting on a Graded win for Tagg. #5 Doubles Partner (5-2) is 3-for-3 on the sod and is an obvious stretch threat for Gomez/Pletcher. #1 Paddy O’Prado (9-5) is out of the Triple Crown series and the Ky Derby show finisher will take plenty of action here. He graduated in a Graded turf event at Gulfstream and owns running style versatility. #2 Workin For Hops (9-2) clearly has talent but might find this distance a bit out of his comfort zone. #6 Dean’s Kitten (8-1) flopped in the Derby but is much better on synthetic and turf. He has a good rivalry going with Paddy O’Prado and will offer much more value than that rival. #4 Vamos A Ver (20-1) has captured both of his turf starts this year and gets the acid test in this spot. #7 Two Notch Road (10-1) is 3-for-3 over the Monmouth weeds and has not picked up his feet at other venues. Look for him to attend the pace before throwing in the towel. THE PLAYS: #3 to win, Exacta Box 3-5, Trifecta 3/1-5/1-4-5-6

CNL 11 (Alw-1x, 3up, 8f inner turf) #8 HAWSER (5-1) earned an above par Final Time Rating in a troubled place finish here at ten furlongs May 29. He goes 3^rd off the shelf and was necked in lone start at this distance. #4 Ham And Ernie (9-2) finished an even 4^th in much needed Pimlico return May 15. The versatile gelding reunites with barn $$ rider Homeister. #3 Powder Mountain (7-2) stretches out 2^nd off the shelf and owns a pair of wire job wins at a mile or longer. THE PLAYS: #8 to win, Exacta 8/3-4, Exacta 3-4/8

CNL 12 (MSW, 3up, 8f inner turf) #6 TUFTON (3-1) chased an above par pace before weakening in dirt sprint bow at Pimlico April 25. His sire is 17% first turf and dam has tossed a pair of grass winners. The 3-year-old gelding is yet another live contender for Camacho/Jenkens. #1 Pollards Vision (5-2) sprung to life in a close-up place finish at ten furlongs here last time. Homeister strings along and he is an obvious threat if able to duplicate his last. Comes up a tad short at this distance? THE PLAYS: #6 to win, Exacta 6-1, Trifecta 6/ALL/1

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders (in order of preference)

(1)   8-3

(2)   1-7

(3)   3-2-4

(4)   1-2-9

(5)   8-1-2

(6)   1-6-5

(7)   2-9-4

(8)   10-3-5

(9)   3-4-5

(10) 3-5-1

(11) 8-4-3

(12) 6-1