May/111
2011 Preakness Contenders
Animal Kingdom burst from the pack to win the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby and he heads to Baltimore as the like choice to win the 2011 Preakness Stakes.
I rode the synthetic train in past renewals of the Derby (Colonel John, Pioneerof The Nile) but I abandoned ship this year. Perfect timing as always!
I had nothing against Animal Kingdom in Louisville. After all, he was my top choice in the Spiral Stakes and looked good in that Polytrack affair. His lone Churchill drill was solid and I said on Oaks day during a segment on Steve Bortstein’s morning radio show that he was the horse I feared most along with Shackleford.
Will Animal Kingdom win the Preakness? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
In a Fantasy Derby article (5-2-11) I wrote for Horse Racing Nation I pegged Soldat over Mucho Macho Man, and the bulk of my Derby action centered around those two colts.
I took flack for pegging soft fractions (:47.75, 1:11.95) in that article but who could have imagined Shackleford’s crawling pace of :48.63 and 1:13.40! Actually, the slow pace was probably the key to success for Animal Kingdom.
Graham Motion’s lightly raced, talented colt did all of his damage on synthetic/turf prior to Saturday and the Derby race shape was very much like an all-weather/grass affair.
Corey Nakatani aboard Nehro seemed to sense the tepid splits and made a smart early move. Mucho Macho Man, the youngest member of the field, showed his immaturity in a solid show finish.
Master of Hounds was hardly disgraced in a respectable 5th place effort. The overseas invader had the most to overcome with a single prep and a stint in quarantine.
Can Dialed In rebound in Baltimore? - photo by Eclipse sportswire
Deep closer Dialed In had no shot with the lack of pace and he is eligible for Stronach’s $5.5 million Preakness bonus because he won two graded races (Holy Bull, Florida Derby) at Gulfstream.
There were not many troubled trips to speak of but it was an adventurous Derby nonetheless. Pants On Fire reportedly bled and will point to the Haskell. Archarcharch had his problems from the inside post. His saddle slipped and he was vanned off after the finish (surgery, retired). Comma To The Top faded to last and chipped his ankle (out 60-days).
Soldat attended the pace and slowly faded to 11th. Not that it would have mattered but he had the speed to attempt a wire job and they were going at such a slow clip.
Now that the Derby is in the books we can turn our attention to my hometown of Baltimore and the second jewel of the Triple Crown. I have had wagering success over the years in the Preakness Stakes and have put my below par Derby performance behind me.
My secret to success in the Preakness is to toss the Derby results and start from scratch. My favorite angle in the Preakness is to play back my losing Derby top (Lookin At Lucky, Point Given, Timber Country, Pine Bluff, Hansel, Risen Star, Snow Chief, Tank’s Prospect). I’ll occasionally shoot for a new face (Red Bullet, Deputed Testamony, Aloma’s Ruler) if the Derby group looks weak and that may be the case in 2011. Not a bad Preakness strike rate of 11-for-29 (38%) using those two angles.
Mucho Macho Man is a solid Preakness threat - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
This year my Derby top was Soldat and he is not expected to run back in Baltimore. I could go for my second Derby choice Mucho Macho Man and we’ll see how he comes up to the second jewel. I have always liked Santiva and he is worth considering if he shows up at Pimlico.
As for new faces, there may be as many as nine so I will almost certainly have my pick of the litter.
I rarely if ever select the Derby winner on top in Baltimore due to lack of value. Animal Kingdom paid $43.80 in Louisville and I’m not about to jump on his favorite bandwagon now.
The list below includes horses pointing to the Preakness as of May 9. Nehro is more likely for the Belmont but he is still a possibility. The Derby was his third start in six weeks so it makes sense for him to pass the second jewel.
I’ll return next week after the post position draw with a ranking and preview of the field.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Jarrod Horak’s Preakness Contenders (in alphabetical order):
Is Animal Kingdom a legit Triple Crown threat? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux) – Earned a 103 BSF for his sharp off the pace tally in the Kentucky Derby. He should be plenty fresh as the Derby was his first start in six weeks. Plenty of upside with only five races under his belt. Handles any footing but can he close into fast fractions?
Astrology (A.P. Indy) – Sunland Derby/Jerome runner-up is consistent. Like his tactical speed and strong pedigree. Asmussen trainee has been playing catch up all year and could be ready for a breakthrough effort.
Concealed Identity (Smarty Jones) – Maryland-bred won Tesio Stakes (86 BSF) at Pimlico on May 7. He beat a pair of solid colts (Ruler On Ice, J W Blue) that day and has improved since stretching out. Probably a cut or two below the best.
Dance City (City Zip) – Pletcher trainee ran a fine prominent throughout race in the Arkansas Derby. Improving colt is an interesting Preakness pace player.
Dialed In (Mineshaft) – Stone closer had no shot as the underlaid favorite in paceless Derby. He runs for a $5.5 million bonus at Pimlico and could rebound in a big way with pace help.
Flashpoint (Pomeroy) – Lightly raced, talented colt is now under the care of Wesley Ward. Flopped in the Florida Derby and will probably show more speed at Pimlico. Might be best sprinting.
King Congie (Badge of Silver) – Rallied for the show in Blue Grass. Looks like a synthetic/turf specialist, but didn’t I say that about the Derby winner?
Mr. Commons (Artie Schiller) – John Shirreffs trainee has plenty of upside. Finished 3rd in the SA Derby and is a promising, late blooming 3-year-old.
Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) – Derby show finisher always runs his early-pressing race. Probably should have been closer to the tepid Derby pace and could easily turn the tables on Animal Kingdom in Baltimore.
Norman Asbjornson (Real Quiet) – Wood Memorial 4th place finisher worked a mile at Pimlico in 1:40 at Pimlico on May 6.
Prime Cut (Bernstein) – Lexington Stakes runner-up is slowly improving for Neil Howard. Probably not fast enough to threaten in Baltimore but he is a long term prospect to watch.
Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) – 6th place Derby effort was not bad. My former top ranked 3-year-old stubbed his toe in Blue Grass and could be rounding back into form.
Shackleford (Forestry) – Florida Derby runner-up set a slow pace at Churchill and ended up an okay 4th. Was training well Derby week but probably should have run better considering the tepid fractions. An early factor at the very least in Baltimore.
Sway Away (Afleet Alex) – Part of my original Derby list last Sept. Just missed the Derby earnings cut following 4th place finish at Oaklawn. Has done all of his damage sprinting.
May/115
2011 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – Moment of Truth
The preps have been run and the field is set. As expected, Uncle Mo scratched from the big dance. Not sure why they entered him in the first place. Questions surrounded his health all week and it was clear that he never fully recovered from his GI tract infection.
Archarcharch drew the dreaded Derby rail - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Archarcharch got the worst of it at the draw. My 2010 top Lookin At Lucky had a nightmare journey from the rail and this year’s rail-sitter has a similar pressing/sustained running style. I don’t think he can get it done from there!
Uncle Mo is not my only top ten member to miss the first Saturday in May. Toby’s Corner came down with an injury and did not make the trip from Maryland.
I started my top ten last September and the only original member to go the distance is Stay Thirsty. His Florida Derby was not pretty but he probably did not like blinkers and wilted in the heat. I am not sure he is mature enough to win the Derby but he has plenty of raw ability and a strong route pedigree. He rates a longshot gander.
The horse with the second longest tenure on my list is Santiva. He joined my ten ten last October and deserves a look if you can forgive his troubled Blue Grass puzzler.
Sway Away was part of my original list and just fell short on earnings. Bonde wanted to go in the Derby and he could have made the field if Mo was not entered. He is looking at the Peter Pan or Preakness.
Will Animal Kingdom handle dirt? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
I have two open slots and three possible candidates to fill them.
Pants On Fire and Shackleford have been getting high remarks in their morning activity leading up to the big day, especially the latter. Animal Kingdom was solid in his lone conventional dirt work at Churchill and my Spiral top has plenty of upside. In the end I will make the latter prove he can handle dirt in the afternoon but would not be shocked if he ran well.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the 2011 Kentucky Derby field on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders:
1. Soldat (War Front) – Kiaran McLaughlin trainee turned in a puzzling effort in the Florida Derby. The Fountain of Youth hero was a versatile gem of consistency on any footing before his last and breezed 5f in 1:01.40 (2/3) at Palm Meadows Training Center on 4-29.
Mucho Macho Man is training aggressively for Derby - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
2. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) – Owns fine positional speed and a nice distance progression (8f, 8.5f, 9f). Four solid moves since the LA Derby including a 5f breeze in 1:00.40 (4/36) at Churchill on April 30.
3. Dialed In (Mineshaft) – Won two graded races at GP this year including Florida Derby. Late runner will need racing luck on the first Saturday in May. Breezed 4f in :48.40 (3/6) at Palm Meadows on 4-28.
4. Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) – Risen Star runner-up failed to fire in the Blue Grass. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at CD under his Derby rider Shaun Bridgmohan. Breezed 4f in :50.20 (20/38) at Churchill on May 2.
5. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) – Gotham hero flopped (blinkers on) in the Florida Derby. Didn’t seem to care for the heat either. He breezed 5f in 1:01.80 (9/20) at CD on 5-1. Ramon Dominguez will ride him back in the Derby and I think my former number one ranked colt lacks the maturity to win a race of this caliber.
6. Twinspired (Harlan’s Holiday) – Ran too good to lose in the Blue Grass. He was the only prominent throughout runner around at the finish at Keeneland and could surprise if he handles the dirt oval in Louisville. Traveled 5f in 1:01.20 (5/13) at Churchill Downs (training track) on 4-30.
7. Archarcharch (Arch) – Arkansas Derby hero is stuck on the Derby rail…ouch! He is bred to run all day and will be grinding away under the Twin Spires. Easy 4f breeze in :52 (24/30) at CD on 5-3.
8. Nehro (Mineshaft) – Back-to-back neck defeats in Louisiana/Arkansas Derby. Landed post 19 but moves in one slot following defection of Mo. Derby is his 3rd start in six weeks. Went 4f in :51.20 (34/38) at CD on 5-2.
9. Pants On Fire (Jump Start) – Louisiana Derby winner could be getting good at the right time for Kelly Breen. Breezed 4f in :47.80 (7/37) at Churchill on 5-1.
10. Shackleford (Forestry) – Florida Derby runner-up has looked great leading up to the Derby. Early-pressing factor can surprise if he runs to his looks/works. Jesus Castanon will ride the Dale Romans trainee on Saturday. Drilled a 5f bullet in :58.80 (1/36) at CD on April 30.
May/110
2011 Kentucky Oaks Top 10 – Victory Lap?
The 2011 Kentucky Oaks will be run in two days and the post positions have been drawn. A field of 13 will contest the 137th running but my longtime number one ranked filly R Heat Lightning is not part of the equation.
R Heat Lightning came down with a problem in her right knee and will be evaluated at Lexington’s Rod and Riddle clinic later in the week. She will drop out of my top ten for now but could return to the list later this year if/when she gets healthy.
Joyful Victory has looked every bit as good as R Heat Lightning in her two graded romps this year and is the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Oaks. The razor sharp Larry Jones trainee appears ready for battle on Oaks day.
Kathmanblu is the 4-1 second choice along with Zazu. The former was the beaten favorite in the Ashland but romped in Churchill’s Golden Rod late last year and is reportedly training well for Friday’s engagement.
Zazu is fresh and ready for the Oaks - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Zazu will attempt to win the Oaks off a 2-month layoff and should be plenty fit with multiple six and seven furlong synthetic workouts for John Sadler.
This list is dedicated to the thirteen Oaks fillies and I will open up my top ten in the near future to include future stars (Island School), sprinters (Turbulent Descent), turf horses (Winter Memories), etc. as we wind our way toward the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs in the fall.
The purse for the 2011 Kentucky Oaks has been bumped up to a cool $1 million and Kathmanblu closed as the 7-2 favorite in the Oaks Future Wager pool (March 11-13). I planned on playing Joyful Victory but she was hammered from 20-1 to 8-1 after her romping win in the Honeybee.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten (13) Oaks Fillies:
1. Zazu (A.P. Indy) – Las Virgenes winner just missed in the March 5 Santa Anita Oaks. She has worked six times since, most recently logging 7f in 1:24.40 at Hollywood Park on 4-30.
2. Joyful Victory (Tapit) – Romped in Oaklawn’s Honeybee and Fantasy and has looked much better than her rather light Beyer numbers. Worked a bullet 5f in :59.20 (1/20) at Churchill Downs on 5-1.
3. Summer Soiree (War Front) – Romped in the Bourbonette Oaks on 3-26 for Larry Jones and was subsequently purchased by Team Valor/Graham Motion. She has worked three time since her last including a 4f move in :48.80 (15/60) under the Twin Spires on April 30.
4. Daisy Devine (Kafwain) – Finished 2nd in the Silverbulletday and 1st in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She blew out a 3f bullet in :35.80 (1/5) at CD on 5-2.
5. Kathmanblu (Bluegrass Cat) – Multiple stakes winner was a flat 3rd in the Ashland. The feeling here has always been that she is better on turf but she clearly handles the Churchill Downs oval. Breezed 5f in 1:01.80 (16/36) at Churchill on 4-30.
6. Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro) – She roared into the Kentucky Oaks picture with a dominating two turn win in the Sunland Oaks. Zazu beat her twice at Santa Anita earlier this year but she is improving and breezed 4f in :48.80 (4/38) at CD on 5-2.
7. Her Smile (Include) – Recent Bobby Flay purchase is now trained by Todd Pletcher. The tactical miss exits a runner-up finish in the Comely and is getting better.
8. St. John’s River (Include) – Drew post 13 for the Oaks. Well-bred miss owns ascending numbers and figures to be running late.
9. Lilacs And Lace (Flower Alley) – Synthetic specialist stole the Ashland candy. She had a rough trip in her lone dirt start and won’t get away with soft splits in the Oaks.
10. Bouquet Booth (Flower Alley) – Flat 4th in last two Graded starts and seems a cut below the best. Won the Delta Princess late last year.
11. Holy Heavens (Holy Bull) – Late runner has been part of trifecta in all five starts for Benard Chatters. She can nibble in the Oaks if the pace gets hot and heavy.
12. Street Storm (Stormy Atlantic) – Won off the turf Mardi Gras at Fair Grounds in March. The Oaks is her first Graded attempt.
13. Suave Voir Faire (Suave) – Distant 3rd in both Graded routes and adds blinkers for the Oaks. Probably the longest shot in the field.
Apr/113
2011 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – Chaos
Plenty has happened since we last checked in on April 11. The Factor flopped in the Arkansas Derby and he is off the Derby trail, along with Jaycito (foot issue). Crimson China, Elite Alex, and Sway Away failed to earn enough graded dough to make the Derby gate. J P’s Gusto is off to New York for his third trainer (Mike Hushion) and will not go on the first Saturday in May.
My list has been turned upside down as half of my contenders are out of the running. This has to be one of the craziest years ever on the Derby trail with numerous flopping favorites and slow races on the Beyer scale. Anything goes on the first Saturday in May.
The Factor is off the Derby trail - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
What happened to The Factor in the Arkansas Derby? He failed to grab the early lead and displaced his soft palate. He had minor throat surgery recently and Bob Baffert wisely opted to skip the Derby.
Sway Away made a premature move under PVal and faded to 4th after leading the Arkansas Derby turning for home. He seemingly has distance limitations and could turn back in the near future. Speaking of PVal, he hooks up with former top ten member Comma To The Top in the Derby.
Nehro just missed for the second straight graded race. The wise guy Derby horse remains eligible for an entry level spot and will be making his third start in six weeks at Churchill Downs.
Archarcharch just held on at Oaklawn Park and the overachieving son of Arch has been in steady training since last November.
Santiva is a graded winner at Churchill Downs - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
My previous top ranked colt Santiva threw in a clunker in the Blue Grass. He had a less than ideal journey in a race he may have needed and has every right to rebound on conventional dirt at Churchill Downs. I will draw a line through his Keeneland flop.
Master of Hounds will invade from Europe and his task appears daunting. He has never run on dirt and has only raced once since the 2010 Breeders’ Cup. Will this be Calvin Borel’s Derby mount?
The deck has been reshuffled and Shackleford and Twinspired are now on track to make the Derby based on graded earnings with Silver Medallion and Anthony’s Cross knocking on the door. I will update this list one more time after post positions are drawn next week and I will continue to follow the 3-year-olds before, during, and after the Triple Crown series.
I have five new arrivals in my top ten and my surprise new number one flopped in his last and has never been part of my list. I am using workouts, bloodlines, and proper spacing between races to formulate my final contenders. This is a tightly packed group of competitors so freshness, post position, and the ability to stay out of trouble (tactical speed) are vital components to a successful Derby run. Don’t be surprised if there are a few more defections and changes to my list next week. It is one of those years…gotta love it!
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2011 contenders on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders:
Will Soldat rebound in the Derby? - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
1. Soldat (War Front) – Kiaran McLaughlin trainee turned in a puzzling effort in the Florida Derby. The Fountain of Youth hero was a versatile gem of consistency on any footing before his last and drilled a strong 5f in :59 at Palm Meadows Training Center on 4-21. Graded Earnings – $540,000
2. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) – Owns fine positional speed and a strong route foundation. Love his stamina building works and he could uncork a top in the Derby. Three solid moves since the LA Derby including last pair at seven panels (1:29.20, 1:23.65). Graded Earnings – $370,000
3. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) – Tasted defeat for the first time in a flat Wood Memorial show finish. Recovering from GI tract infection and breezed 5f in 1:01.80 (10/25) in the Churchill slop on April 26. Fitness is the major concern. Graded Earnings – $1,360,000
4. Dialed In (Mineshaft) – Won two graded races at GP this year including the Florida Derby. Late runner will need racing luck on the first Saturday in May. Last published work was a 4f breeze in :49.90 at Palm Meadows on 4-12. Graded Earnings – $840,000
Don't forget about Toby's Corner in Derby - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
5. Toby’s Corner (Bellamy Road) – Consistent performer upset Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial. He is battle tested and could make some noise in the Derby. No published moves since Wood. Training at Fair Hill and is expected to work this weekend before shipping to Kentucky. Graded Earnings – $625,000
6. Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) – Risen Star runner-up failed to fire in the Blue Grass. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at CD under his Derby rider Shaun Bridgmohan. Breezed 4f in :49.20 at Churchill on 4-26. Graded Earnings – $242,397
7. Archarcharch (Arch) – Two graded route wins at Oaklawn Park including game Arkansas Derby tally. He is bred to run all day and will be grinding away under the Twin Spires. Graded Earnings – $780,000
8. Nehro – Back-to-back neck defeats in Louisiana/Arkansas Derby. Does his best running in the late going and is rapidly developing but it might be too much too soon. Breezed 5f in 1:02.80 at CD on 4-25. Graded Earnings - $400,000
9. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) – Gotham hero flopped (blinkers on) in the Florida Derby. He drilled a 5f bullet (1:00) on Easter Sunday at CD and Ramon Dominguez will ride him back in the Derby. I still think my former number one ranked colt lacks the maturity to win a race of this caliber. Graded Earnings – $260,000
10. Twinspired (Harlan’s Holiday) – Ran too good to lose in the Blue Grass. He was the only prominent throughout runner around at the finish at Keeneland and could surprise if he handles the dirt oval in Louisville. Graded Earnings - $197,500
Apr/110
2011 Kentucky Oaks Top 10 – The Final Countdown
We are now less than two weeks to the Kentucky Oaks and the major contenders are putting in their final works for the big event. A full field of fourteen is expected and leading the way are R Heat Lightning and Joyful Victory.
R Heat Lightning has held down the top spot in my top ten since March 7. She has worked twice since her Gulfstream Oaks tally including a best of 94 Belmont Park training track bullet on April 16.
Joyful Victory has looked every bit as good as R Heat Lightning in her two graded romps this year. The razor sharp Larry Jones trainee appears ready for battle on Oaks day. Check out the video of her April 25 workout below.
Zazu will attempt to win the Oaks off a 2-month layoff and should be plenty fit with five, six, and seven furlong synthetic moves for John Sadler.
Let’s check in on some of my former top ten players to see what they are up to.
Former number one filly Turbulent Descent looked great in the seven furlong Beaumont at Keeneland and definitely has an affinity for synthetic ground. She also handles conventional dirt and is expected to make some noise in graded New York sprints this summer.
Tell A Kelly ran next to last in her disappointing Beaumont return and pacesetter Gran Lioness weakened to last. The former probably needed the outing and could wake up next time.
Gulfstream Oaks also-ran It’s Tricky has returned to New York for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
Big Tiz finished a fine 2nd in her synthetic sprint allowance return at Hollywood Park on Easter Sunday. It was a perfect prep for longer and bigger races down the road.
I’ll squeeze in one more pre-Oaks update next week and will continue to track the fabulous fillies throughout the year. After the Oaks I will open up the list to include sprinters (Turbulent Descent), turf horses (Winter Memories), etc. as we wind our way toward the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs in the fall.
The purse for the 2011 Kentucky Oaks has been bumped up to a cool $1 million and Kathmanblu closed as the 7-2 favorite in the Oaks Future Wager pool (March 11-13). I planned on playing Joyful Victory but she was hammered from 20-1 to 8-1 after her romping win in the Honeybee.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top 2011 Kentucky Oaks contenders on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Fillies:
1. R Heat Lightning (Trippi) – Romping Davona Dale and Gulfstream Oaks winner remains on top of the heap. Breezed 4f in :49.80 (7/13) at Churchill Downs on 4-23.
2. Joyful Victory (Tapit) – Romped in Oaklawn’s Honeybee and Fantasy and has looked much better than her rather light Beyer numbers. Worked 5f in 1:01.80 (10/25) at Churchill Downs on 4-25.
Zazu is training up to the Oaks - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
3. Zazu (A.P. Indy) – Las Virgenes winner just missed in the March 5 Santa Anita Oaks. She has worked five times since, most recently logging 7f in 1:27.20 at Hollywood Park on 4-24.
4. Kathmanblu (Bluegrass Cat) – Rachel Alexandra Stakes winner finished a flat 3rd in the Ashland. The feeling here has always been that she is better on turf but she clearly handles the Churchill Downs oval. Breezed 5f in 1:02.80 (4/9) at Churchill on 4-23.
5. Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro) – She roared into the Kentucky Oaks picture with a dominating two turn win in the Sunland Oaks. Zazu beat her twice at Santa Anita earlier this year but she is getting better and drilled 5f in 1:01 (17/22) on 4-20.
6. Summer Soiree (War Front) – Romped in the March 26 Bourbonette for Larry Jones and was subsequently purchased by Team Valor/Graham Motion. She has worked twice at Keeneland since her last including a swift 6f move in 1:10.80 on April 23.
7. Daisy Devine (Kafwain) – Finished 2nd in the Silverbulletday and 1st in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She breezed 5f in 1:01 (13/22) at Keeneland on 4-17.
8. Island School (A.P. Indy) – She is developing nicely for Shug McGaughey and figures to blossom in New York later this year. Breezed 3f in :37.66 (4/18) at Belmont Park on 4-22.
9. Arienza (Giant’s Causeway) – Captured both sprint starts and was dusted by Joyful Victory in the Fantasy. Well-bred miss has plenty of upside and went 4f in :49.40 (13/43) at Churchill Downs on April 22.
10. Wyomia (Vindication) – Ashland runner-up joins the list. She won a minor stakes event at Tampa Bay so she seems adept on dirt or synthetic. No published works since the April 9 Ashland.
Apr/110
2011 Kentucky Oaks Top 10 – Another Joyful Victory
The performance of the week was turned in by Joyful Victory. The sharp Larry Jones trainee followed up a romping Honeybee tally with a Fantasy walk in the park on April 10. She only received an 83 BSF but looked great doing it once again.
Highly regarded Azeri filly Arienza could not match strides with Joyful Victory but was best of the rest.
R Heat Lightning is still No. 1 - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
In other Kentucky Oaks prep action, R Heat Lightning (100 BSF) solidified her top spot in my rankings with another sharp score at Gulfstream Park on April 2. She dominated the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Oaks and is the fastest 3yo filly in the land at this stage.
Island School rallied to finish a clear second behind R Heat Lightning and is on the upswing for Shug McGaughey. The late striding daughter of A.P. Indy was making her first route start in the GP Oaks and should continue to improve as the year progresses.
It’s Tricky was beaten more than 20 lengths in the GP Oaks and drops off my list.
Lilacs And Lace (87 BSF) was the upset winner of the April 9 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. John Terranova’s surprise package paid $99.40 and seems best on all-weather ground.
Wyomia was clearly second best and Kathmanblu flattened out in the lane to finish a disappointing 3rd.
The biggest disappointment in the Ashland was Dancinginherdreams. She never fired in a puzzling last place effort and may not have cared for synthetic footing.
Let’s check in on some of my former top ten players to see what they are up to.
Former number one filly Turbulent Descent has worked four times since winning the SA Oaks on 3-5. Her latest morning drill was 5f in :59.80 at Hollywood Park on 4-11.
Tell A Kelly has been working every 6-7 days since 3-11. Her first four works were at Palm Meadows and she shipped to Keeneland in April. Her latest move was 4f in :48 on 4-13 and could return in the April 17 Beaumont for new trainer Chad Brown.
Big Tiz dropped off the worktab for a month but has worked three times since 3-23, most recently going a strong 5f in :59.20 at Santa Anita on April 8.
Prima Donna Stakes winner Gran Lioness breezed 4f in :52.80 at Churchill Downs on 4-9.
The purse for the 2011 Kentucky Oaks has been bumped up to a cool $1 million and Kathmanblu closed as the 7-2 favorite in the Oaks Future Wager pool (March 11-13). I planned on playing Joyful Victory but she was hammered from 20-1 to 8-1 after her romping win in the Honeybee.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top 2011 Kentucky Oaks contenders on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Fillies:
1. R Heat Lightning (Trippi) – Romping Davona Dale and Gulfstream Oaks winner remains on top of the heap. The May 6 Kentucky Oaks is next.
2. Joyful Victory (Tapit) – Romped in Oaklawn’s Honeybee and Fantasy but her Beyer numbers have been light.
3. Zazu (A.P. Indy) – Las Virgenes winner just missed in the March 5 Santa Anita Oaks. She has worked three times since, most recently logging 6f in 1:14.60 at Hollywood Park on 4-9.
4. Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro) – She roared into the Kentucky Oaks picture with a dominating two turn win in the Sunland Oaks. Zazu beat her twice at Santa Anita earlier this year but she is getting better and uncorked a 4f bullet in :46.60 on 4-7.
5. Kathmanblu (Bluegrass Cat) – Rachel Alexandra Stakes winner finished a flat 3rd in the Ashland. The feeling here has always been that she is better on turf but she clearly handles the Churchill Downs oval.
6. Summer Soiree (War Front) – Romped in the March 26 Bourbonette for Larry Jones and was subsequently purchased by Team Valor/Graham Motion. No published works since her last.
7. Daisy Devine (Kafwain) – Finished 2nd in the Silverbulletday and 1st in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She worked 4f in :46.40 at Keeneland on 4-8.
8. Island School (A.P. Indy) – New top ten member is developing nicely for Shug McGaughey. Look for her to blossom in New York later this year. No published works since the GP Oaks.
9. Arienza (Giant’s Causeway) – Captured both sprint starts and was dusted by Joyful Victory in the Fantasy. Well-bred miss has plenty of upside and needs time to grow and mature.
10. Wyomia (Vindication) – Ashland runner-up joins the list. She won a minor stakes event at Tampa Bay so she seems adept on dirt and synthetic.
Apr/110
2011 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – Toby’s Corner
Much has happened on the road to the 2011 Kentucky Derby since we last checked in on March 31. Dialed In won the Florida Derby. Uncle Mo lost to Toby’s Corner. Premier Pegasus and To Honor And Serve are off the trail with injuries. Jaycito missed the SA Derby with a foot problem. And last but not least, I moved back to Louisiana!
What’s up with Mo? He set the pace and had no response to a rallying Toby’s Corner in the Wood. Uncle Mo was much the best on paper and should have won even if he was 75% so his tiring show finish was certainly surprising.
Toby's Corner beats Uncle Mo - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Take nothing away from Toby’s Corner. The Graham Motion trainee overcame some traffic to post a professional score. He earned a 94 BSF and seems as good as any in a suddenly wide open Derby.
Wood runner-up Arthur’s Tale would like to join the Derby chase but he might not have the earnings to make the gate.
Jaycito missed the SA Derby but Bob Baffert won anyway with unraced 2-year-old Midnight Interlude (95 BSF), who caught Comma To The Top in the final strides.
I was busy packing for my recent move so I missed updating my list last week. Dialed In rallied to win the Florida Derby for Nick Zito. Shackleford surprisingly landed the place and To Honor And Serve finished 3rd but is off the Derby trail with a strained suspensory ligament.
Stay Thirsty and Soldat disappointed at the Gulf. I will give the former a mulligan and the latter was never part of my top ten and seems best on the pace.
Astrology, part of my initial top ten last September, went 5f in 1:00.80 (21/52) at Santa Anita Park on April 11. The Sunland Derby place finisher is rapidly running out of time and seems more like a Preakness possibility.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders:
Santiva is my new No. 1 Derby contender - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
1. Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) – Risen Star runner-up is all set for the April 16 Blue Grass. Breezed 5f in 1:00 (3/14) at Palm Meadows on 4-9. Graded Earnings – $240,254
2. Dialed In (Mineshaft) – Won two graded races at GP this year including Florida Derby. Late runner will need luck on the first Saturday in May. Graded Earnings – $840,000
3. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) – Tasted defeat for the first time in a flat Wood Memorial show finish. Not sure what to make of him at this point and he will need to train lights out at CD for me to consider him a strong Derby threat. Graded Earnings – $1,360,000
4. The Factor (War Front) – San Vicente hero dominated the Rebel Stakes in his first route try. The Arkansas Derby (April 16) wire job threat worked 6f in 1:12.20 (4/39) at SA on 4-10. Graded Earnings – $270,000
5. Toby’s Corner (Bellamy Road) – New top ten member. Consistent performer upset Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial. He is battle tested and could make some noise in the Derby. Graded Earnings – $625,000
6. Sway Away (Afleet Alex) – San Vicente runner-up had everything go wrong in the Rebel. It’s now or never time in the Arkansas Derby (blinkers on?) and he breezed 6f in 1:12.60 at Oaklawn Park on 4-7. Graded Earnings – $61,500
7. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) – Gotham hero flopped (blinkers on) in the Florida Derby. Connections are still thinking Kentucky Derby but he might lack the maturity for a race of that caliber. Graded Earnings – $260,000
8. Elite Alex (Afleet Alex) – Southwest show finisher got no pace help from outside post in LA Derby. The Arkansas Derby is his last chance to pick up much needed graded earnings and he uncorked a 1:11.60 six furlong gate bullet (blinkers on) at OP on 4-6. Graded Earnings – $65,000
9. Jaycito (Victory Gallop) – He missed the SA Derby because of a sore foot. He is reportedly on the mend and might go next in the April 23 Lexington. Graded Earnings – $250,000
10. Crimson China (Giant’s Causeway) – New entrant to the list was last seen landing the place in the Rushaway. I have liked him for quite some time and we should get a better gauge of his talents in the Blue Grass. Graded Earnings – None.
Apr/117
Pick 6 Blog Update – April 6
This week at Pick 6 Blog
Note that I am moving this week so my pick six schedule is up in the air. Pick 6 blog will get back on a regular schedule after I settle into my new surroundings. Keep checking back for updates and thanks for your patience.
Sunday Santa Anita Park Recap – April 3 (5 of 6)
Three wire jobs on the main but patient runners had a fighting chance. Early-pressing types nabbed both turf routes (rail at 8 feet).
Martin Garcia and Joel Rosario booted home a pair.
On the ticket front I tabbed four Primary (Lady Alex, Screaming Regal, Amazombie, Nice Meidel) winners and one Secondary (Uncle Sam) winner. It ended up being a chalky sequence and the conso came back $44.80.
Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2011 contenders, and be sure to follow Horse Racing Nation on Facebook!
For more Santa Anita Park action check out Marc Doche at Pick 4 Blog.
Free Play Links
Below are links to my free selections…enjoy!
3rd race from Aqueduct (Wednesday, April 6) – Horse Racing Nation
2nd race from Aqueduct (Thursday, April 7) – Horse Racing Nation
Fast Track with Steve Bortstein
I am pleased to announce that I have joined Steve Bortstein on his Fast Track radio show. Tune in each Saturday and Sunday (8-9am MT).
Click here to listen to the Fast Track on Fox Sports 1340AM.
Mar/112
2011 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – The Rosie Show
There were three graded Derby preps last week but none of the performances got the heart racing.
Congrats to Fair Grounds leading rider Rosie Napravnik for guiding Pants On Fire (94 BSF) to victory in the Louisiana Derby. She gave the Kelly Breen runner a nice ride and his effort was solid but hardly top ten worthy.
Steve Asmussen’s improving charge Nehro snatched the place away from Mucho Macho Man. The latter reportedly threw a shoe in a bit of a disappointing effort and will train up to the Derby. Nehro has his eye on the Arkansas Derby.
Elite Alex did not get much pace help in New Orleans and could only manage 4th, and trainer Tim Ritchey reportedly was not happy with Calvin Borel’s passive ride. He needs a 1-2 finish in the Arkansas Derby if he wants to play on the first Saturday in May.
Animal Kingdom is a lightly raced Derby threat - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Animal Kingdom (92 BSF) overcame his lack of experience and ran down a game Decisive Moment in Turfway’s Spiral. The winner got pace help and looked good in an off the pace tally but looks like a synthetic/turf specialist to me.
Swift Warrior (90 BSF) beat Animal Kingdom’s highly regarded stablemate Crimson China in the ungraded Rushaway. The latter got no pace help and reportedly bled in a rallying clearly second best effort. He could go in the Blue Grass next and was probably the most impressive 3-year-old to run last weekend.
Twice The Appeal (89 BSF) upset Astrology in Sunday’s Sunland Derby. The latter did all of the pace dirty work off the layoff and should improve but this group is a cut or two below the best. It was nice to see former top ten member Astrology fire off the shelf but he has been playing catch up all year. He was part of my original top ten from last September.
The Florida Derby features a matchup between three of my top five players so there could be some changes in the rankings next week.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top Kentucky Derby 2011 contenders on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders:
1. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) – Undefeated juvenile champ has a hammerlock on the top spot. His Wood Memorial prep in the Timely Writer went perfect. Breezed 4f in :49.45 (29/60) at Palm Meadows on 3-27. Graded Earnings – $1,260,000
Stay Thirsty dons the hood for the Florida Derby - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
2. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) – Uncle Mo’s stablemate captured his Gotham return and will wear blinkers in the April 3 Florida Derby. Breezed 5f in 1:01.95 (10/26) at Palm Meadows on March 27. Graded Earnings – $260,000
3. Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) – Solid place finish in Risen Star return. He should spring forward in the April 16 Blue Grass. Worked 5f in 1:02.20 (5/9) at Palm Meadows on 3-25. Graded Earnings – $240,254
4. Dialed In (Mineshaft) – Holy Bull winner lost his Florida Derby allowance prep on March 6. The Nick Zito charge drilled a 4f bullet in :47.55 (1/19) at Palm Meadows on 3-24. Graded Earnings – $240,000
5. To Honor And Serve (Bernardini) – The Nashua/Remsen hero was obviously short in his Fountain of Youth return. Four moves for the Florida Derby including a 4f (:49) Payson bullet on 3-27. Graded Earnings – $250,000
6. Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) – Big win in the March 12 San Felipe. The likely April 9 Santa Anita Derby favorite will work for that event this weekend. Graded Earnings – $228,000
7. The Factor (War Front) – San Vicente hero dominated the Rebel Stakes in his first route try. He’s the obvious Arkansas Derby (April 16) target. Graded Earnings - $270,000
8. Sway Away (Afleet Alex) – San Vicente runner-up had everything go wrong in the Rebel. He needs to regroup in the Arkansas Derby and drilled 5f in :59.60 (2/22) at Oaklawn Park on 3-31. Graded Earnings – $61,500
9. Elite Alex (Afleet Alex) – Southwest show finisher got no pace help and a passive ride in the Louisiana Derby. The Arkansas Derby is his last chance to pick up much needed graded earnings. Graded Earnings – $65,000
10. Jaycito (Victory Gallop) – He finished a distant 2nd in a less than stellar San Felipe return. He will need to run much better in the Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby. Worked 4f in :48.40 (7/12) at Hollywood Park on 3-22. Graded Earnings – $250,000
Mar/110
2011 Kentucky Oaks Top 10 – Plum Crazy
The performance of the week was turned in by Plum Pretty. The Bob Baffert trainee dominated a suspect crew in the Sunland Oaks and looked great doing it. She cruised by 25 lengths and earned a 99 BSF.
Summer Soireee (91 BSF) romped in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway and she joins stablemate Joyful Victory in the top ten. In a late development, Team Valor International purchased Summer Soiree and she is now under the care of Graham Motion. She is off to Keeneland to prepare for the Kentucky Oaks.
Daisy Devine (84 BSF) won a less than stellar renewal of the Fair Grounds Oaks. Top ten member Inglorious finished a disappointing 4th and drops off the list.
Gran Lioness (79 BSF) turned back and went wire-to-wire in the 6f Prima Donna Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Azeri’s daughter Arienza made it 2-for-2 with an Oaklawn allowance sprint win. She is expected to step up and stretch out in the stakes ranks next time.
Former top ranked miss Turbulent Descent and the aforementioned Gran Lioness appear to have distance limitations and their connections have opted for shorter events. They could meet in Keeneland’s 7f Beaumont. Strong route efforts this week coupled with disappointing efforts and changing plans have opened up a few spots on my list.
A Z Warrior has not worked since finishing 3rd in the March 5 Santa Anita Oaks. She also drops out of the top ten and the whole bottom half of my list changes.
The purse for the 2011 Kentucky Oaks has been bumped up to a cool $1 million and Kathmanblu closed as the 7-2 favorite in the Oaks Future Wager pool (March 11-13). I planned on playing Joyful Victory but she was hammered from 20-1 to 8-1 after her romping win in the Honeybee.
Click on the names of each horse below to view their Horse Racing Nation profile page, which includes pedigree information, results, and video.
Check out the top 2011 Kentucky Oaks contenders on Horse Racing Nation.
Jarrod Horak’s Top Ten Fillies:
My top rated lady runs at the Gulf on Saturday - photo by Eclipse Sportswire
1. R Heat Lightning (Trippi) – Romping Davona Dale winner drilled a 4f bullet in :47.60 (1/60) at Palm Meadows on 3-27. The April 2 Gulfstream Oaks is next.
2. Kathmanblu (Bluegrass Cat) – Rachel Alexandra Stakes winner skipped the Fair Grounds Oaks. She goes next in the April 9 Ashland and breezed 5f in 1:03.85 (10/10) at Gulfstream Park on 3-25.
3. Zazu (A.P. Indy) – Las Virgenes winner just missed in the Santa Anita Oaks. She breezed 4f in :50.20 (11/19) at Hollywood Park on 3-28.
4. Dancinginherdreams (Tapit) – Runner-up in the Forward Gal and Davona Dale. She sports the look of a two turn animal and will get her route chance in the Ashland. Breezed 4f in :50.70 (24/26) at Palm Meadows on 3-28.
5. Joyful Victory (Tapit) – Romped in Oaklawn’s Honeybee and goes next in the April 10 Fantasy. Breezed 5f in 1:01.60 (7/20) at Oaklawn on 3-29.
6. It’s Tricky (Mineshaft) – Kiaran McLaughlin’s undefeated filly tackles R Heat Lightning in Saturday’s Gulfstream Oaks. Breezed 4f in :49.65 (26/41) at Palm Meadows on March 26.
7. Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro) – She roared into the Kentucky Oaks picture with a dominating two turn win in the Sunland Oaks. Zazu beat her twice at Santa Anita earlier this year.
8. Summer Soiree (War Front) – Recent Team Valor acquisition will go straight to the Kentucky Oaks following a facile Bourbonette victory.
9. Arienza (Giant’s Causeway) – Captured both Oaklawn Park starts and goes next in the Fantasy or Instant Racing at that venue.
10. Daisy Devine (Kafwain) – New top ten member finished 2nd in the Silverbulletday and 1st in the Fair Grounds Oaks. The Kentucky Oaks is next.
