Santa Anita Pick 6 – Big Cap Day
- Updated: March 6, 2010
Saturday’s pick six from Santa Anita Park includes four graded races. The feature event is the Grade 1 Big Cap, and it could turn into a match race between classy turfer Loup Breton and talented distaffer St Trinians. There is a 60% chance of showers with a high temperature of 62. My suggested tickets can be found at the bottom of this post following analysis.
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Degree of Difficulty: Competitive. On a scale of 1 to 10, the Saturday pick six from Santa Anita rates a 7.
Possible Singles: Setsuko (7th race), Proviso (9th race), Loup Breton (10th race)
St Trinians goes for her 5th straight win as she faces the boys in Saturday's Grade 1 Big Cap at Santa Anita (photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Jarrod Horak’s Santa Anita Pick 6 analysis – Saturday, March 6, 2010
Santa Anita Race 6 (Pasadena Stakes, 3yo, 8T) #10 High Success (8-1) has been part of exacta in all 5 synthetic sprints and goes for a four-bagger today. Bred well enough to handle sod and will be finishing. #3 Macias (9-5) has won 2 straight over the local weeds, and note that he has scored twice on synthetic should this race be transferred. Stalking trip likely for the Baffert trainee. #4 Alfarabi (3-1) had his speed fig dip in a turf win last time, and he finished less than a length behind Macias before that. #7 Make Music For Me (9-2) is a maiden with a bankroll of more than $200k. Three graded placings on synthetic last year, and barn enjoying fine meet. Barba 22% first turf and 40% blinkers on, and sire 17% first grass.
Santa Anita Race 7 (Grade 3 Sham, 3yo, 9f) #7 Setsuko (7-2) rallied for place on weeds last time, but he’s better on synthetic. Earned triple digit late pace figs in last four all-weather starts, and Bejarano chose him over #9 Nextdoorneighbor (3-1). The latter looked good in local synthetic route maiden breaker. Should continue to progress and looms a factor in stakes bow.
Santa Anita Race 8 (Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, 3yo fil, 8.5f) I have been keeping an eye on #7 Cozi Rosie (5-1), and this is a good spot to get some value on the improving router. She is 2 for 2 at this course/distance, and the long winded sort probably wants more ground than this. Sadler trainee will be finishing under regular pilot Mike Smith. #5 Blind Luck (1-2) is an obvious class play with three grade one route wins under her belt. Overcame a tepid pace to get up at a flat mile last time, and she will have to run better to beat my top.
Santa Anita Race 9 (Grade 1 Kilroe Mile, 4up, 8T) #8 Proviso (8-1) was competitive versus the like of Goldikova and won five times in overseas grass events. Been on a synthetic stakes diet since arriving in the US, and I thought she ran great behind a tepid pace last time. #2 Blue Chagall (4-1) disappointed as the fav versus similar last time, but I’ll toss that effort as he never seemed to find his groove. Both ’09 turf wins from today’s rail post, and the Canani runner is capable of showing much more. #5 Ever A Friend (3-1) is 3 for 3 over the local weeds, and he won the ’08 renewal of this event. Fragile 7yo consistently runs his early-pressing race. #9 Fluke (7-2) beat Ever a Friend in the Grade 1 Citation when last seen across town. I have always liked #7 Monzante (8-1), and I have to give him a longshot stretch look for Gomez/Mitchell. Handles any footing. #6 Red Alert Day (20-1) was a nose shy of Monzante on Jan 14th, and Bejarano strings along.
Santa Anita Race 10 (Grade 1 Santa Anita Hcp, 4up, 10f) Most of these simply are not ten furlong horses and/or grade one material. #6 Loup Breton (4-1) exudes turf class, and he could easily inhale these if able to handle synthetic footing. Has been working over the Pro-Ride surface since Nov. ’09, and I am looking for another big effort under Gomez. Canani is a profitable 25% all-weather trainer, and I’ll trust the veteran conditioner on the surface switch. #2 St Trinians (7-2) has cruised in all four US starts, and she’s an obvious threat if able to navigate ten furlongs. She’s 3 for 3 over Pro-Ride footing and meets a mostly suspect group of older males.
Santa Anita Race 11 (Clm-12/5/2L, 4up, 6f) #12 Hasty Trend (8-1) has never raced this low, and I find it interesting that Bejarano takes the call. In six starts together, the jockey-trainer comb have produced two wins and five top three finishes. #1 Crash Landing (4-1) has been rotating between outer and inner posts recently, and he’s back on the rail today. Versatile sort has been flashing speed recently. #10 Hovig (7-2) drops and switches surfaces for 26% layoff trainer Mike Mitchell. One of many with speed, and I would not be shocked if one jumped out and wired the field.
Saturday Pick 6 Tickets
Budget Play: $2 Pick Six 3-4-7-10/7/5-7/8/2-6/1-10-12 ($96)
The Big Ticket: $2 Pick Six 3-4-7-10/7-9/5-7/2-5-6-7-8-9/6/1-10-12 ($576)
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Del
March 6, 2010 at 9:48 pm
Jarrod, you singled Proviso in the ninth. But you took six horses on your big ticket?
I singled Ever a Friend. After the race I looked at the race post ratings and Proviso looked like a shark swimming with fishes. Your first impression was dead on.
Del
March 6, 2010 at 9:50 pm
Also, you didn’t take The Final Roar in the last race. Would you comment on that?
Admin
March 6, 2010 at 10:21 pm
Proviso rallied to get up by a nose as the girls beat the boys again. Gotta give props to Fluke as he battled on the pace and got nailed on the last jump. Great efforts by top two.
Admin
March 6, 2010 at 10:23 pm
The Final Roar was 1 for 9 lifetime and figured to get hung out wide chasing honest fractions. Also, his figs were on the way down, so he looked the part of an underlay.
Del
March 6, 2010 at 10:39 pm
Thanks Jarrod.
Sally Brisbane
October 18, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Has anyone done stats on synthetic grass times versus natural grass?