Feb/104
Santa Anita Pick 6 – Feb 4th
Thursday’s pick six from Santa Anita Park includes a pair of turf races. The first is a downhill sprint, and High Note could sit the right trip behind honest splits. The other turfer is a flat mile special weight event, and Warren’s Jitterbug looms a beatable fav with six runner-up finishes from eight tries. Cloudy skies are expected with a high temperature of 66. My suggested tickets can be found at the bottom of this post following analysis.
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Degree of Difficulty: Moderate. On a scale of 1 to 10, the Thursday pick six from Santa Anita rates a 5.
Possible Singles: High Note (3rd race), Frank and the Goat (4th race), Snowmaster (7th race)
Jarrod Horak’s Santa Anita Pick 6 analysis – Thursday, February 4, 2010
Santa Anita Race 3 (OC-25/1x, CA-bred f&m 4up, 6.5T) #5 High Note (6-1) was headed in lone downhill try. Hendricks enjoying fine meet and shows a profit with this type of layoff runner. Gets pace to chase as well. #1 Princess Suances (7-2) has fired in four straight and cuts back in distance. Ground saving stalking trip expected.
Santa Anita Race 4 (Str-Alw, 3yo, 8.5f) #2 Frank and the Goat (9-2) removes the hood and reunites with winning pilot Espinoza. Bullet work for this, and he was a troubled 4th in a local route last time. #6 Worth A Punt (5-2) was heavily backed off the shelf and did not disappoint last out. Barn 40% with recent graduates trying winners for the first time.
Santa Anita Race 5 (Mcl-25k, f&m 4up, 7f) #5 Secret Oath (4-1) finished a troubled 7th in Hollywood bow, and place/show finishers both came back to win. Marty Jones enjoying fine meet. #1 Heavy Kitty (6-1) receives a rider upgrade and hails from a 26% 2nd timer outfit. Tab for improvement. #2 Teenage Dancer (6-5) drops into a maiden claimer for the first time for Carla Gaines.
Santa Anita Race 6 (MSW, 3yo fil, 8T) #7 Maria’s Dane (9-2) attracts Espinoza 3rd off the shelf, and she should be all set for her best in this spot. #8 Empire Spring (3-1) was just better than my top last time, and she’s also 3rd off the shelf. Aforementioned duo are above par finishers. #3 Noverre’s Vision (6-1) should get a jump on my top pair and figures to fire 2nd route and 3rd start overall.
Santa Anita Race 7 (OC-40/1x, 4up, 10f) #8 Snowmaster (7-2) got no pace help from outside post in a similar 8.5f event last time. Three best races at nine panels, and he should relish this distance. Along in time under Bejarano. #3 Never (5-2) had a dream inside stalking trip as my top last time, but he could not get past the pacesetter in same race my top exits. He goes 3rd off the shelf for 35% Gomez/Baffert team. #6 Tamborim (3-1) ran into The Usual Q. T. in last two graded turf outings. Versatile sort seems better on the sod but has won on synthetic before.
Santa Anita Race 8 (Mcl-32k, 3yo, 6f) #3 Manofgold (8-1) hails from a hot barn and gets in light with Santiago Reyes. Cerin saddled a debut winner yesterday. #5 Sonofablur (9-5) found trouble in both starts versus better. Bejarano/O’Neill 38% together, and drop could do the trick.
Thursday Pick 6 Tickets
Budget Play: $2 Pick Six 1-5/2/1-2-5/3-7-8/8/3-5 ($72)
The Big Ticket: $2 Pick Six 5/2-6/1-2-5/3-7-8/3-6-8/3-5 ($216)
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7:05 pm on February 4th, 2010
I should have spent more on this one. I had Princess Suances and Burna Dette ( as in burn a debt:) in the first leg.
Next three races I singled with Gilligan, Sarabella Mia, and Warren’s Jitterbug.
I should have went heavier on the later legs. Instead, I singled Mr Hot Stuff in the 7th Race.
In the last race my horses were 3,4,5, and the 10 which won. But I singled the 5. My ticket was decided by Bejarano.
I know you’re supposed to spend more money on the six. Is there also a rule of thumb to spend more on certain sorts of races, or say on the late legs, etc.?
2:20 pm on February 5th, 2010
Just a couple comments from a non-pro. Jarrod’s picks in the last leg are usually pretty good regardless of the race type, distance, class. I use them a lot. I don’t know that throwing more money at a ticket is ever going to be the answer because where do you draw the line? One of the most important things I consider is how often ML favorites actually win during any pick six sequence. Favorites may only win 1-2 or 3 or the six races. I’m sure some of you know that favorites loose like 70% of the time anyway so this isn’t a major discovery but I think favorites loose even more during the pick six sequence. Anyway, when I have made my selections for all six races, I go back and see how many of those selections are ML favs. If there is more than 3 or 4 favs in my picks, I go back and look again. Hard part is trying to determine when a favorite is a real single and when the runner is vulnerable.
7:18 pm on February 4th, 2010
I sure could have used Snowmaster in the 7th. I see on Brisnet that it was rated tops and alone for Current class. How come the rest of the field is rated N/A?
For Back speed it lists Mr. Hot Stuff and Snowmaster. The rest of the field is N/A. Why’s that?
For Prime power, Mr Hot Stuff and Snowmaster were 2nd and 3rd. Actually, I was using the form and rated Never and Snowmaster about the same, but Brisnet didn’t rate Never very highly.
10:43 pm on February 4th, 2010
Not hard and fast rules in the pick six. Certain races are spread events. Check Bris stats to see how favorites fare in different classes of races. It is never a bad idea to take stands, bet less, and have fun.
I have no problem singling later events, because if I am still alive in the latter stages, at least I am getting a run for my money.
Loved Snowmaster today and made a nice win/place bet on him.